City Profile

Population Data for City of Nash

The United States Census Bureau collects population information at ten-year intervals; this information is a primary source for analyzing current population characteristics and creating population estimates and forecasts. The long-term population forecast was created using symptomatic, cohort component, housing unit, and trend extrapolation methods and includes the effects of occupied housing and constraints on land use. The analysis also includes information regarding future development and local or regional economic shifts that may affect the community’s growth.

Historic & Present Population

Table 2A: Population Change, 1960-2011

Year

Nash

Bowie County

State of Texas

1960

1,124

59,971

9,579,677

1970

1,961

67,813

11,196,730

1980

2,022

75,301

14,229,191

1990

2,162

81,665

16,986,540

2000

2,169

89,306

20,851,820

2010 (census)

2,960

92,565

25,145,561

2011 (estimate)

3,350

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 1960-2011.

Over the past 50 years, Nash’s population grew steadily from just over 1,000 to approximately 3,350 residents. Over the same period, the population of Bowie County grew from approximately 60,000 to 93,000 residents.

According to the census data released in March 2011, the City contains 1,143 occupied of 1,281 total housing units, while the housing survey conducted for this report counted 1,339 occupied of 1,399 total housing units. The census vacancy rate (10.8%) is much higher than that recorded during 2011 field survey (4.6%).

Regional Population Change:

As illustrated in Chart 2A, regional population change ranged from -11% to 37%. Nash grew by the largest percentage of any city in the area. The majority of small cities shrunk, while Texarkana, Maud, and Bowie County experienced moderate growth.

Chart 2A: Regional Population Change, 2000 – 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Population Characteristics

The analysis of Nash’s population characteristics uses data from US Census Reports for 2000 and 2010. The analysis identifies racial breakdown, income level, and age cohorts of Nash’s population.

Project Beneficiaries by Sex, Race and Ethnicity.Table 2B: Population by Race & Ethnicity, 2000-2010 describes how the population’s ethnicity changed over the decade.

In 2010, Nash’s White population comprised 63% of the total population. Citizens of all races who describe themselves as Hispanic/Latino grew from 4% of the population in 2000 to 14% of the population in 2010. The City’s African American population grew from 18% to 24% Combined, all non-white or black racial categories rose from 5% in 2000 to 13% of the population in 2010.

Bowie County residents are slightly less likely to be White (by 6%) or Hispanic/Latino (by 7%) than Nash City residents. The State has a much higher percentage of Hispanic/Latino (38%) and approximately half the percentage of Black/African American (12%) residents as the City.

Table 2B: Population by Race & Ethnicity, 2000 – 2010

 

 

Nash

Bowie County

 

2000

2010

2010

Characteristic

Number

%

Number

%

Number

%

Total Population

2,169

100%

2,960

100%

92,565

100%

White

1,689

78%

1,876

63%

63,641

69%

Black or African American

381

18%

703

24%

22,387

24%

American Indian, Alaskan Native

20

1%

39

1%

694

1%

Asian

7

0%

25

1%

734

1%

Native Hawaiian / Other Pacific Islander

0

0%

1

0%

51

0%

Other

58

3%

225

8%

3,077

3%

Two or More Races

14

1%

91

3%

1,981

2%

 
Hispanic or Latino

83

4%

423

14%

6,062

7%

 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2000 and 2010, American FactFinder; <http://factfinder2.census.gov>

Project Beneficiaries by Sex, Race and Income.Table 2C: Beneficiary Report contains information required by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in the fulfillment of this planning grant. The numbers detailed for project beneficiaries below may not correspond exactly to the numbers presented in Table 2B above. This is because HUD grant programs generally require at least a 51% low to moderate community income level to qualify for funding, but income levels are not collected from all Census respondents. Census income levels are derived from a 1-in-6 sample and weighted to represent the total population. Race beneficiary numbers are then mathematically derived to correspond to income beneficiary numbers. When Census income level estimates seem too high, extra door-to-door surveys are conducted in communities to verify a 51% low to moderate income level. Because the income tabulation is slightly different for the grant application, the resulting numbers generally do not correspond to the 100% population samples that are represented in Table 2B.

Table 2C: Beneficiary Report

Total Project Beneficiaries

1957

Male

945

Female

1012

 

Race

Non-Hispanic

Hispanic Ethnicity also

Total

White

1,500

24

1,524

Black/African American

339

5

344

Asian

6

0

6

American Indian/Alaskan Native

17

1

18

Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander

0

0

0

American Indian/Alaskan Native & White

5

0

5

Asian & White

4

0

4

Black/African American & White

2

0

2

American Indian/Alaskan Native & Black/African American

0

0

0

Other Multi-Racial

9

45

54

Grand Total

1,957

 

 

Income Level

No. of Persons

Very Low (at or below 30% of the AMFI)

235

Low (31-50% of the AMFI)

314

Moderate (51-80% of the AMFI)

529

Non-Low/Moderate (above 80% of AMFI)

879

Total

1957

Subtotal – All Low/Mod

1078

Percent Low/Mod

55.1%

 

Age Cohorts. In 2010, the median age for residents of Nash was 31.5 years, younger than Bowie County’s median (37.9 years) and the State’s median (33.6 years). Chart 2B: Population by Age Group, 2000-2010 tabulates the populations of the City, County and State into five separate age cohorts: 0-4; 5-19; 20-44; 45-64; and 65 or greater. Between 2000 and 2010, the City’s age distribution remained almost exactly the same and very similar to that of the State.

 

Chart 2B: Population by Age Group, 2000 – 2010

 

Source: 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census of Population and Housing, Summary Population and Housing Characteristics

 

2010 Population Estimate

Population estimates help determine how much growth has occurred since the last decennial census. Estimates identify changes to the city’s population and also provide a benchmark to guide population projections and forecasts. The Texas State Data Center periodically issues population estimates for all incorporated places in Texas, and the Center’s system provides a standard for the estimate produced as part of this study. The Center uses a combination of the symptomatic, cohort component and housing unit methods to calculate estimates and projections. Descriptions of these methods are as follows:

  • The SymptomaticMethod is based on factors such as county-level birth and death data, public and private school enrollment, Medicare enrollment, net movement of people from the military to civilian populations, and housing unit figures.

  • The Cohort-Component Method bases its calculations on each age group, or cohort, used in the census process. Projections rely on data that describe county-level birth and death rates and county-to-county migration patterns for each cohort. Projections also include historical trends in local school enrollment and vehicle registration.

  • The Housing Unit Method employs the formula P = (H*PPH) + GQ. Where P = total population, H = occupied housing units, PPH = average number of persons per household, and GQ = population in group quarters. The Texas State Data Center’s housing unit method also considers building permit and demolition data to identify changes to the housing stock.

The 2011 population estimate for Nash is 3,350. That estimate was determined using data from a windshield surve, the Texas State Data Center’s current and historic estimates for the City of Nash, and Texas Water Development Board population projections.

Nash’s extraterritorial jurisdiction (ETJ) contains approximately 370 additional residents as estimated from census data and the windshield survey. The ETJ is an area extending one-half mile from the city limits within which an incorporated city has certain rights and responsibilities. Combined, the total population within Nash’s ETJ and city limits in 2011 is approximately 3,720.

Future Population Forecast

Population forecasts are a key element in planning for the future. Federal, state, and local funding decisions for facilities such as highways, sewage treatment plants, and schools are based upon the projected number of people who will use them. A population forecast is a statement of what a place’s population will be given a set of likely future conditions that consider the physical, social, economic, or political conditions that might encourage or inhibit growth.1

Several factors that can have an impact on population change were considered when forecasting the size of Nash’s future population, including:

  1. Historic growth and migration patterns;

  2. Age of population;

  3. Public facilities;

  4. Location along routes to employment centers;

  5. Ability to annex surrounding areas located in the ETJ; and

  6. Expected new subdivisions.

Historic Growth and Migration Patterns.As illustrated in Chart 2C, Nash has grown in population each decade since 1960. The City was incorporated in 1959, which in part explains its 74% population growth during 1960s. Since then, its growth has been supported by proximity to Texarkana, the Red River Army Depot, and the Lone Star Army Ammunitions Plant. Texarkana is a regional employment center with a diversified economy that has grown steadily over the past 50 years.

Chart 2C: Population Change: City, County, Texas (1960 – 2010)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 1960 – 2010

Age of Population:In 2010, the City had a slightly higher percentage of young adults (20-44 years) as the State (by 3%). As that cohort is the principle childbearing facet of the population, the City should a similar birth rate to the State’s (13 births per thousand in 20092). As shown in Chart 2D,the ratio between women and men is similar for each age group. Unlike many more rural communities with elderly or heavily male populations, population growth is likely to derive both from birthrate and from the type of residents economic factors attract to the City.

 

Chart 2D: Population by Age and Sex, 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census, 2010

Public Facilities.The City maintains fire and police departments, public water and wastewater systems, and paved roads.

Industrial/Commercial Base.The Red River Army Depot has historically been the largest employer in the Texarkana region.Three industries (Health care/social assistance, Retail trade, and Accommodation/food service) employ more than 50% of the Bowie County workforce. In the first quarter of 2010, Manufacturing, Wholesale, and Retail establishments made the highest percentage of gross sales in Nash. According to the Texas Workforce Commission’s June 2020 estimate, unemployment in Bowie County is at 9.0%, only slightly higher than the State’s rate of 8.8%. The Texas Workforce Commission does not report employment data for communities of Nash’s size.

Geographic Location.Nash is immediately adjacent to Texarkana, the closest regional employment center with a population on both sides of the border of just under 67,000. The next closest regional center is Shreveport, 77 miles southeast. The gulf coast is approximately 270 miles south. One of the City’s prime advantages and one of the reasons for the number of industrial and commercial establishments in Nash is its location at the junction of multiple thoroughfares that provide easy access to Dallas, Shreveport, and Little Rock.

Additional Developable Lots.The City has approximately 900 acres of semi-developed and agricultural lots within the City limits and approximately 700 within the ETJ. Some of that land will be developed in the near future as part of the Nash Industrial Park and anticipated development in conjunction with I-30 backage roads. In 2012, the City expects to annex a several hundred acre area to the west of the existing city limits that includes agricultural, residential, semi-developed, and some industrial land. Because of the City’s proximity to Texarkana, low tax rates, highways, and existing businesses, real estate prices have been increasing, especially along the major thoroughfares. Despite Nash’s rapid growth, the available land supply is expected to accommodate the population growth expected over the next 20 years.

 

Nash’s Twenty-Year Population Forecast. Based on the above factors and considering growth trends throughout the County, the City’s population is expected to grow moderately over the next twenty years. The forecast population of Nash in 2031 is 3,800. This forecast is highly dependent on the continued economic growth of the Texarkana region and the success of Nash’s annexation and development plans.

 

Chart 2E: Forecasted Population, 1980 -2040

Source: Texas State Data Center’s State Population Estimates and Projections Program combined with Cohort-component method calculations and Texas Water Development Board 2008 Regional Water Plans County and City Population Projections.

 

Population Distribution

Information regarding the distribution of population in Nash in 2010 is based upon 2000 Census data, 2010 Census data, and the 2010 windshield survey conducted by GrantWorks. Population distribution and density was mapped (Map 2A) using the 2031 projected population number of 3,800 people.

Population Build-out

Population build-out estimates how many people could reside in the City and ETJ given different levels of development. Neither estimate considers significantly higher residential densities. If multifamily or mixed-use developments are built in the City, then the holding capacity and build-out numbers would increase.

The City’s “holding capacity” is the total number of people who could reside within the current City limits if all residential, vacant, and semi-developed land were developed and occupied by residential uses. The City includes approximately 704 acres of semi-developed land, 635 acres of residential land, and 218 acres of undeveloped land. At the 2011 residential development density of 5.28 people per acre, the holding capacity for the City of Nash is 8,220 people.

The city’s “population build-out” is the total number of people who could reside in the City and its ETJ if semi-developed and open space land were developed residentially at the current density of 5.28 people per acre and the current residential land use percentage of 24%. As shown in Table 2D, Nash has enough land area within the City limits to support approximately 5,000 people if 24% of the semi-developed and open space land were developed as residential properties. The build-out estimate does not consider constraints on land development, including environmental carrying capacity, infrastructure carrying capacity, governmental financial capacity, or community character.

 

Table 2D: Population Build-Out

How many people can the land hold at current densities and residential ratio?

 

Land Use

Within City Limits

City and ETJ

Semi-Developed Land (acres)

704

928

Population

4,614

4,895

Open Space Land (acres)

218

742

Population

3,741

4,659

Semi-Developed and Open Space Land (acres)

922

1,670

Population

5,005

5,834

 

1Richard E. Klosterman, Community Analysis and Planning Techniques (Savage, Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield, 1990).

 

2 U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2009. NVSR Volume 58, Number 25. 6 pp. (PHS) 2010-1120.

 

Maps